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Experts’ forecasts on the demand for energy carriers in motor vehicle transport in Poland up to year 2035

Predictions on the demand for energy carriers (activities) by the Polish motor vehicle transport basically stem from the draft Regulation of the Council of Ministers of 23 December 2011 regarding the scope of information to be included in forecasts on changes in activities in respective sectors of industry. Therefore, the Ministry of Infrastructure – among other institutions – is required to present a relevant forecast in order to perform the competences set forth in Art. 9 (3) of the Act on the system of managing emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances of 17 July 2009 (Journal of Laws of 2017, item 2.8.6). The article addresses the method applied to the estimations, which requires three basic factors to be included that determine the volume of the demand in each specified group of vehicles, i.e. the actual and predicted number of vehicles, the actual and predicted average annual travelled distance of vehicles, the actual and predicted average consumption of energy carriers per 100 km of travelled distance. The key results of computations were presented. Those included – among others – the number of passenger cars registered in Poland, other vehicles with permissible maximum mass up to 3.5 tons and more than 3.5 tons (trucks, buses and special vehicles) in the baseline period of the forecast (as at the end of 2015), considering the types of applied energy carriers. The article presents a forecast regarding the transport performance of the fleet together with a forecast of the fleet’s size by specified groups of vehicles (according to the scope set out in Exhibit no. 17 to the abovementioned draft regulation) in Poland to year 2035. The experts’ forecast - presented in a table and graphic form - regarding the consumption of energy carriers (petrol, diesel oil, biodiesel, bioethanol, LPG, CNG, electric energy, hydrogen) refers to years 2025, 2030 and 2035.
Tematyka artykułu: Światowe tendencje w technologii i produkcji silników spalinowych
Autor: Wojciech Gis
Współautor(zy): Jerzy Waskiewicz, Maciej Menes